Read the article and hear NPR's broadcast of the story here.
The Good Judgment Project originated out of IARPA's ACE program which is an attempt to push the state of the art on crowdsourced forecasting techniques and also see if "crowds" without access to classified information would be better forecasters than those inside the intelligence apparatus.
From the article:
According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.But there are caveats to this as the IARPA project sponsor Jason Matheny points out:
Matheny doesn't think there's any risk that it will replace intelligence services as they exist.
"I think it's a complement to methods rather than a substitute," he said.
Matheny said that though Good Judgment predictions have been extremely accurate on the questions they've asked so far, it's not clear that this process will work in every situation.
"There are likely to be other types of questions for which open source information isn't likely to be enough," he added.
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