Tuesday, March 15, 2011

How prediction markets impact risk management programs

MITRE Corporation, working in conjunction with the U.S. Air Force, has published an analysis of the impact their Inkling prediction market had on a particular risk management program they manage on behalf of the Air Force.

While their research is continuing in to this year, MITRE has already proven a direct correlation between activity in the prediction market and:

1) an increase in overall database activity logging and managing risks; and
2) an increase in the rate of newly identified risks

What they hope to analyze in the coming months is to better understand if risks are being identified earlier because of the existence of the prediction market, and do risks get mitigated or closed more quickly?

Here is a link to the report by Jon Schuler that has been made publicly available.

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