Monday, November 26, 2007

Prediction Markets Appear in the Economist - The Future of Futurology

We're just catching up on our reading after taking a few hours off this past Thanksgiving weekend and saw prediction markets mentioned in an article in the Economist.

From the article:

"The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into hard probability. Will Osama bin Laden be caught in 2008? Only a 15% chance, said Newsfutures in mid-October 2007. Would Iran have nuclear weapons by January 1st 2008? Only a 6.6% chance, said Inkling Markets. Will George Bush pardon Lewis “Scooter” Libby? A better-than-40% chance, said Intrade. There may even be a prediction market somewhere taking bets on immortality. But beware: long- and short-sellers alike will find it hard to collect."

Read the whole thing here. It's a pretty good read.

(thanks newsfutures and midas oracle for the reference)

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